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MONDAY, OCTOBER 29th

Date: October 30th, 2012

BRIEF OVERVIEW:  Fun size WNW swell is on track for the first day of the waiting period, Thursday the 1st, although morning wind conditions look problematic before improving over the afternoon. A slightly larger WNW swell is lining up for the afternoon of the 4th through the 6th along with favorable conditions, if the storm behaves as forecast in the next few days.

 

THURSDAY 1st

SWELL/SURF: Mid period WNW swell continues with surf in the 4-5’ occ. 6’ range on the face (head high+ sets).

WIND/WEATHER: Unfavorable southerly wind through the morning hours, 5-10kts, and rain looking likely. Conditions improve over the afternoon hours as winds gradually shift to the W/WNW and the tide drops. Wind direction/speed is heavily dependent on the timing of a passing front. Stay tuned.

 

FRIDAY 2nd

SWELL/SURF: Smaller leftovers from the WNW with some lingering 3-4’ sets but fading through the day and even though tide is more favorable in the late afternoon, the surf looks pretty weak.

WIND/WEATHER: Mostly sunny skies and light/variable to light NE wind in the morning. Light WNW wind in the afternoon 5-10kts.

 

SATURDAY 3rd

SWELL/SURF: Weak leftovers from the WNW and minor SW swell with very small surfthrough the full tides in the morning/early afternoon. As the tide drops some 2-3’ (waist high) sets show in the afternoon.

WIND/WEATHER: Sunny skies and light/variable to light NE wind in the morning. WNW wind in the afternoon 10kts.

 

SUNDAY 4th

SWELL/SURF: Weak leftovers from the WNW and minor SW swell with very small surfthrough the full tides in the morning/early afternoon. Possible building trend of new WNW swell late afternoon. Stay tuned.

WIND/WEATHER: Sunny skies and light/variable to light NE wind in the morning. Light NW wind in the afternoon 5-10kts.

 

MONDAY 5th

SWELL/SURF: Mid to longer period WNW swell fills in further, if storm behaves as forecast in a few days. Potential for head high+ and slightly larger waves at at the Lane. Stay tuned.

WIND/WEATHER: Sunny skies and light/variable to light NE wind in the morning. Light NW wind in the afternoon 5-10kts.

 

SWELL/WEATHER SUMMARY

 

At this point we’re looking at two swell events during the waiting period:

 

  • WNW swell for Thursday the 1st in the head high to slightly overhead range on the sets/better tides, as long as the storm continues to behave as forecast in the next day. Those waves drop off 30-40% on Friday and then drop further into and through most of the weekend.
  • A potentially slightly larger WNW to NW swell for Sunday late afternoon through Tuesday. Again, this is pending storm development over the next a few days but looks promising for more fun to possibly medium size surf and very contestable conditions.
  • Long range charts and models indicate fading and smaller surf will prevail from the 7th-10th, with a shot at a small pulse of WNW swell for the final day of the waiting period.

 

Wind/Weather

As mentioned in the daily breakdown above, we’ll need to watch conditions closely for the first swell with a front forecast to move through the Santa Cruz region sometime on Thursday. Current forecast charts/models indicate that we’ll see unfavorable southerly wind in the morning on Thursday as well as rain. As the front passes sometime in the early afternoon, wind will shift to the W/WNW and overall conditions will improve (and this will also coincide with dropping tide). Stay tuned, we’ll have more details on the timing of this passing front in our next couple forecasts.

 

High pressure will then rebuild over the Western US on Friday and maintain a similar position through the weekend. This will set up great weather with sunny skies, warm beach temps in the afternoons (after chilly mornings) and favorable wind. Look for generally light/variable to light NE’erly wind in the mornings to shift light WNW to NW in the afternoons.

 

Long range charts indicate similar conditions will continue early next week and then we will move into a windier pattern with increased NW’erly flow Tue/Wed the 6th-7th as high pressure builds into the coast behind a front passing through the Pacific Northwest. Stay tuned.

 

Next Update: Tuesday evening, October 30th

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