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TUESDAY, OCTOBER 30TH

Date: October 31st, 2012

BRIEF OVERVIEW:  Fun size WNW swell prevails on the first day of the waiting period, Thursday the 1st. We’ll see some morning sickness with rain and variable SE’erly wind, with improving conditions over the late morning and afternoon as winds shift to light westerly and the tide drops. A larger WNW swell is lining up for the afternoon of Sunday the 4th and Monday the 5th with favorable conditions, if the storm behaves as forecast in the next few days.

 

THURSDAY 1st

SWELL/SURF: Mid period WNW swell continues with surf in the 4-5’ occ. 6’+ range on the face (head high+/slightly overhead sets).

WIND/WEATHER: Morning sickness with rain and variable SE’erly wind early. Conditions improve over the late morning and afternoon hours as winds gradually shift to the W/WNW and the tide drops. Wind direction/speed is heavily dependent on the timing of a passing front. Stay tuned.

 

FRIDAY 2nd

SWELL/SURF: Now looking like the swell will maintain a little more size on Friday, although still fading through the day. Look for 3-4’+ sets with a few sets still reaching head high+. Stay tuned, this is dependent on storm behavior in the next 24 hours.

WIND/WEATHER: Mostly sunny skies and light/variable to light NE wind in the morning. WNW wind in the afternoon 8-10kts.

 

SATURDAY 3rd

SWELL/SURF: Weak leftovers from the WNW and minor SW swell with very small/nearflat surf through the full tides in the morning/early afternoon. As the tide drops some 2-3’ (waist high) sets show in the afternoon.

WIND/WEATHER: Mostly sunny skies and light/variable to light NE wind in the morning. WNW wind in the afternoon 7-10kts.

 

SUNDAY 4th

SWELL/SURF: Slow early morning with the full tides and mainly old, leftover swell. New WNW swell builds in the afternoon with head high+ waves very possible for the last couple/few hours of light. Stay tuned, this is very dependent on storm formation/development in the next few days.

WIND/WEATHER: Mostly sunny skies and light/variable to light NE wind in the morning. Light NW wind in the afternoon 6-10kts.

 

MONDAY 5th

SWELL/SURF: Mid to longer period WNW swell fills in further, if storm behaves as forecast in a few days. Potential for head high+ to a foot or two overhead waves at the Lane. Stay tuned.

WIND/WEATHER: Mostly sunny skies and light/variable to light NE wind in the morning. Light NW wind in the afternoon 5-10kts.

 

SWELL/WEATHER SUMMARY

 

A fun to medium size WNW swell will move in for the first day of the waiting period from a still very active storm located roughly 800 miles off the Pacific Northwest Coast. The most recent forecastcharts/models indicate this storm will maintain pretty good energy through the next 24 hours, which would allow our surf to continue at very contestable levels through the end of the week.

 

Thursday will see head high+/slightly overhead waves on the larger sets, with still some lingering chest-head high sets very possible on Friday. Stay tuned, we’ll have more details as we continue to watch this nearby storm evolve.

 

The next swell is on track for Sunday afternoon and Monday and looks a notch or two stronger than the above swell, if the storm creating it behaves as forecast. At this point we’ll see a slow start on Sunday, with the new swell building over the afternoon and filling in further for Monday. Waves in the head high to a foot or two overhead range look very possible at this time. Stay tuned, this will depend greatly on the behavior of the storm in the next few days.

 

Going further out, long range charts/models indicate a fading trend Tuesday and Wednesday the 6th-7th , with a small, new bump of swell possible for the 8th-9th. The final two days of the waiting period look very slow at this time.

 

Wind/Weather

We’ll be closely watching local conditions for Thursday, as a front passes through the region. There is no real change in our thinking from yesterday, with rain very likely Thursday morning and variable S/SE’erly wind. The wind does look fairly light, but expect some morning sickness early with improving conditions late morning and over the afternoon as the wind shifts to light W/WNW and skies clear (and the tide drops).

 

High pressure will then rebuild over the Western US on Friday and maintain a similar position through the weekend. This will set up good weather with sunny skies, warm beach temps in the afternoons (after chilly mornings) and favorable wind. Look for generally light/variable to light NE’erly wind in the mornings to shift light WNW to NW in the afternoons but generally top out around 10kts.

 

Long range charts indicate similar conditions will continue early next week and then we will move into a windier pattern with increased NW’erly flow around Tuesday afternoon through Friday. Stay tuned.

 

 

 

Next Update: All Hallows Eve (Wednesday night)

This forecast is provided as part of an event consulting agreement recognizing Surfline as the official forecaster for the O’Neill Coldwater Classic. Your organization is free to publish this forecast information and release it to the press under the condition that Surfline is credited as the source of the forecast information.

To learn more about Surfline’s Surf Consulting services click here.

To learn more about Surfline’s Forecast and Science Team click here.

 

 

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