The waves look like they are going to highly contestable on the first two days of the waiting period. We are going to start running heats on Wednesday 11/6 at 7:30 am.
Updated: Friday afternoon, November 1st
Brief Overview: Fun size, longer period WNW swell will start the event waiting period on Wednesday the 6th, along with favorable wind and weather conditions under the influence of high pressure. Decreasing surf takes over on Thursday, with a very modest new bump of WNW swell late Thursday and into Friday. At this point the weekend looks fairly slow off a mix small, mid period NW swells and small Southern Hemisphere SSW swell.
WEDNESDAY 6th: Mid to longer period WNW swell
Surf: 4-5’ occ. 6’ faces. Stay tuned, still storm dependent.
Wind: Light NE wind for the morning shifting to light NW in the afternoon.
THURSDAY 7th: Decreasing, mid period WNW swell
Surf: 3-5’ faces, strongest through the morning.
Wind: Light/variable wind in the morning, with WNW wind building in the PM. Stay tuned.
FRIDAY 11th: Modest reinforcements from the WNW
Surf: 2-3’ occ. 4’ faces. Storm dependent, stay tuned.
Wind: Light in the morning with potential for moderate to strong NW flow in the afternoon. Stay tuned.
SAT 12th-Sun 13th: Small mix of NW and SSW swell looking likely at this point. Stay tuned.
The event waiting period will start off in a fun, mid to longer period WNW swell (295-305) from a storm now moving over the Aleutian Islands. This compact, but intense, storm has thus far been stronger than forecast with a decent fetch of 40-55kt wind and satellite confirmed seas in excess of 40’ around 2500-3000 miles from Santa Cruz.
As such, we have bumped up the surf size a bit from our last couple forecast and will continue to monitor this storm/swell as it passes Hawaii and into the offshore buoy network. We’ll see the swell build in throughout the day on Tuesday, hold on Wednesday and then ease on Thursday.
A smaller bump of swell looks likely follow it up late Thursday and Friday from a storm forecast to develop in the next 24-72 hours also near the Aleutian Islands. Stay tuned, we’ll have more details on this in the next few days.
Going through the weekend of the 9th-10th, at this point things look pretty slow. Current forecast models indicate that we’ll see a small mix of mid period NW swell and a little Southern hemisphere swell but overall the surf looks smaller than what we’re expecting to see Wed/Thur.
Wind/Weather: The region will be under the influence of high pressure on Wednesday with sunny skies and light wind. Wind looks to remain light on Thursday at this point, although a bit stronger out of the WNW in the afternoon. There is a chance for rain the end of next week as NW flow also is forecast to increase. Stay tuned.
Next Update: Monday evening, November 4th
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